Insights and Positions

The molecule transition is one of the most complex challenges of our time. These are Power2X reports on how to solve it: clear analysis on clean molecules, the markets that need them, and the policy required to scale them. Written for the people building, financing and regulating the energy transition.

We realise next generation energy assets at industrial scale for our business partners and ourselves. We are an industry leader in large-scale green molecule projects enabling decarbonization of hard-to-abate sectors.

Cleared for take-off – Demystifying the cost of eSAF in Europe

A bottom-up estimate on the costs to produce eSAF in Europe

Public eSAF cost estimates in Europe range from about €4,000 to over €9,000 per ton, with no large-scale project yet at final investment decision. Developed together with Strategy&, this report unpacks what drives eSAF costs, why project fundamentals can explain a cost difference up to 45%, and what it takes to build competitive production in Europe.

Icons/Angle-Right Read the Strategy& report Icons/Angle-Right

Cleared for take-off – Demystifying the cost of eSAF in Europe

A bottom-up estimate on the costs to produce eSAF in Europe

Public eSAF cost estimates in Europe range from about €4,000 to over €9,000 per ton, with no large-scale project yet at final investment decision. Developed together with Strategy&, this report unpacks what drives eSAF costs, why project fundamentals can explain a cost difference up to 45%, and what it takes to build competitive production in Europe.

Icons/Angle-Right Read the Strategy& report Icons/Angle-Right

Advisory & Business Development

We support businesses globally and across industries to accelerate the energy transition.

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Our positions​

Where we stand on the policy choices that decide whether clean molecule projects actually get built.

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eSAF and ReFuelEU Aviation​

Ready for take-off: hold the course on ReFuelEU Aviation

With fifteen other organizations across the European eSAF ecosystem, we have asked the European Commission to uphold the ReFuelEU Aviation mandates. The problem is not supply but regulatory certainty.

Airlines and fuel suppliers have called for the eSAF mandates to be delayed or weakened, arguing supply will not be there by 2030. We disagree: a significant number of eSAF projects across Europe are designed to deliver within the ReFuelEU timeframe. The issue is not supply but the conditions needed to unlock it.
Any signal that the mandate could be weakened would hit financing, delay investment decisions and reduce the eSAF actually available in 2030: a self-fulfilling shortage. It would also leave Europe dependent on imported eSAF, undermining Europe’s energy sovereignty and reindustrialization.
The right response is to enable deployment with the right instruments, such as double-sided auctions or contracts for difference, rather than weaken demand. Power2X and fifteen co-signatories have urged the Commission to hold the course.

Icons/Angle-Right Joint letter to the European Commission, 20 March 2026 (PDF) Icons/Angle-Right

Importing Hydrogen Derivatives in the Netherlands

A mandate is not a market: what the Netherlands needs to unlock hydrogen imports and hydrogen carriers such as renewable methanol

The Netherlands has an opportunity to become Northwest Europe’s hub for international hydrogen trade. Alongside domestic production, imports of hydrogen and hydrogen carriers such as renewable methanol will be essential to decarbonize aviation, shipping and industry while strengthening Europe’s energy security.

The ‘Waterstofhandelsagenda’ covers the four key hydrogen carriers: ammonia, liquid hydrogen, LOHCs and methanol and raises three key asks to the government: provide long term demand certainty for hydrogen and its carriers through 2040, support the scale up of import infrastructure with public financing, and resolve the enabling conditions, from grid congestion and permitting to certification and public acceptance. Power2X supports all three recommendations to strengthen hydrogen imports. At the same time, imports should complement, not replace, domestic production. Europe will require both competitive imports and local production to create a sufficiently large, resilient and liquid market. Above all, the market requires long-term policy stability. Consistent regulatory signals are needed to give producers, investors and offtakers the confidence to reach Final Investment Decision and conclude long-term commercial agreements. Mandates alone do not create a market; investment certainty and bankable demand do. 

Power2X contributed to the ‘Waterstofhandelsagenda’, bringing the perspective of renewable methanol and e-fuels.

Icons/Angle-Right Waterstofhandelsagenda (PDF in Dutch) Icons/Angle-Right

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